Key US sectors at mercy of proposed 50% EU tariffs

From tiny pharmaceutical compounds to massive machinery, a trade war with Europe would send ripples throughout the United States economy.

The spectre of a 50% tariff rate on all goods from the European Union has many sectors of the U.S. economy bracing for the impact of a new front in the global trade war.

Last Friday afternoon, United States President Donald Trump, decrying the slow pace of trade negotiations with the EU, threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all imports from the 27-nation trading block in a matter of days, effective June 1. On Sunday President Trump softened his position, saying the 50% tariffs would come into effect on July 9 if a deal is not reached by then.

While tariff announcements and trade wars have become routine since President Trump’s inauguration in January, the prospect of a trade war with Europe would be different.“Trade with Europe is a world apart from trade with China,” explains ImportGenius President Chris Schafer. “American imports from Europe tend to be higher-value items rather than inexpensive consumer products. But they are the kinds of high-value items that would impact the lives of nearly all Americans.”

While the proposed 50% tariff would apply equally to every EU member state, each individual country has a different exposure to the U.S. market.

European imports by country, 2024

According to experts, a 50% tariff on EU imports — combined with EU counter-tariffs — could shrink the U.S. economy by 1.5%. Similar projections apply to numerous EU countries: 1.5% for Germany, 1.2% for Italy, 0.75% for France and 0.5% for Spain. But the hardest economic hit would be felt in Ireland, which relies heavily on pharmaceutical exports to the United States, and whose economy would contract by 4% as a result of the higher tariffs.

European imports: top sectors and potential ripple effects

With 27 member nations, the European Union is a diverse economy that provides the United States with a variety of high-value imports — and they’re not the goods you might expect. Only 5% of America’s EU imports in 2024 ($29.8 billion) were the often-mentioned, stereotypical “luxury” goods such as perfumes and makeup ($12.4 billion), precious gems ($9.4 billion), artwork and antiques ($5.5 billion), and leather handbags ($2.4 billion).

By contrast, data from the US Trade Census analyzed by ImportGenius shows trade with the EU supports America’s health and medical sectors, accounting for more than one-third of its $605 billion in 2024 EU imports.

• The largest single category, accounting for 21% of European imports ($127 billion), is pharmaceutical products, whether over-the-counter or prescription medication.
• Some 6% of imports ($35.1 billion) fall under the category of organic chemicals. The lion’s share of this total ($15.6 billion) was semaglutide compounds, the key ingredient in many weight-loss medications.
• Another 6% of imports ($37 billion) are surgical and medical instruments, including hearing aids ($1.3 billion alone) and artificial joints such as knee and hip replacements ($2.5 billion).

“Those are substantial inputs into America’s health industries, and into the quality of Americans’ lives,” says Schafer. “A 50% cost increase on these items would be felt at the pharmacy checkout. They might also impact health insurance costs, resulting in rising premiums for individual families and employers.”

It remains to be seen whether any eventual trade deal with the EU will include some form of exemption for these products.

America also relies upon Europe’s advanced manufacturing and engineering industries, with another one-third of total imports coming from that sector.

• Machinery and mechanical parts accounted for 15% of European imports ($89.8 billion). This includes excavators and other large industrial equipment, impacting the U.S. based industries that rely on such machines.
• Vehicles made up 10% of imports ($60.3 billion), $23.4 billion of which were vehicles with 1.5 litre to 3.0 litre engines (100 to 200 horsepower).
• Electrical machinery and parts accounted for another 6% of the total ($39.2 billion).
• A total of $14.3 billion (2.5%) were imports of aircraft, spacecraft, and parts.

The last item on that list, while fairly small, is significant because it’s part of the renewal and maintenance of America’s fleet of commercial aircraft — meaning that a 50% tariff could trickle down to the cost of airfare.

“When it comes to Europe, you’re negotiating with more than two dozen countries at once, and the goods America imports from them are not quickly replaceable,” says ImportGenius President, Schafer. “The eventual solution will likely need to be a lot more nuanced than a blanket 50% tariff across all sectors.”

Impact on U.S. ports

Volumes at America’s Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports would be disproportionately impacted by any trade war with Europe. The ports of New York, Norfolk and Charleston receive more than half of all shipments from the EU.

European imports by port of entry, 2024

While that might come as no surprise, a deeper dive shows some interesting divergences. While New York handles more than double the EU volume of any other port, it accounts for less than 20% of its total shipments. By contrast, trade with EU nations accounts for more than half of all volume at Norfolk, owing in part to its proximity to America’s pharmaceutical industry.

Port volumes by country of originNew York/Newark and Norfolk VA, 2024

The data underlines how the impacts of a trade war with the EU could potentially impact not just the shipping industry, but the specific industries served by different ports. The fallout from a trade war with Europe wouldn’t be felt equally across the U.S.